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  • Alexander shared from The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    One would suppose that people living through the beginning of WWII had an inkling that something momentous was taking place. Not at all.
    Note: Just like Putin's shenenigans seem to us all an unworthy trigger to WW3. We'll see...
  • Alexander shared from The Black Swan: Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable Fragility" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
    The dynamics of the Lebanese conflict had been patently unpredictable, yet people’s reasoning as they examined the events showed a constant: almost all those who cared seemed convinced that they understood what was going on. Every single day brought occurrences that lay completely outside their forecast, but they could not figure out that they had not forecast them. Much of what took place would have been deemed completely crazy with respect to the past. Yet it did not seem that crazy after the events.
    Note: my fear is that what is unfolding in Ukraine will follow the same pattern
(Seattle, WA)
Alexander Berezhnoy