satisfies those conditions, its judgment is likely to be accurate. Why?
Note: Write down reasons
But David Pennock—a researcher at Overture who has studied these markets closely—found that, especially for active traders in these markets, status and reputation provided incentive enough to encourage a serious investment of time and energy in what is, after all, a game.
As Steven Johnson showed in his illuminating book Emergence, an ant colony normally works remarkably well.
Independence is important to intelligent decision making for two reasons. First, it keeps the mistakes that people make from becoming correlated. Errors in individual judgment won’t wreck the group’s collective judgment as long as those errors aren’t systematically pointing in the same direction. One of the quickest ways to make people’s judgments systematically biased is to make them dependent on each other for information.