The strategy for the discoverers and entrepreneurs is to rely less on top-down planning and focus on maximum tinkering and recognizing opportunities when they present themselves. So I disagree with the followers of Marx and those of Adam Smith: the reason free markets work is because they allow people to be lucky, thanks to aggressive trial and error, not by giving rewards or “incentives” for skill. The strategy is, then, to tinker as much as possible and try to collect as many Black Swan opportunities as you can.
Note: The Black Swan: focus on experimental tinkering less on rewards or incentives. Innovate!
Let us call an antischolar—someone who focuses on the unread books, and makes an attempt not to treat his knowledge as a treasure, or even a possession, or even a self-esteem enhancement device—a skeptical empiricist.
Note: The Black Swan: a skeptical empiricist - focus on the unead books; what he does not know
a) The error of confirmation, or how we are likely to undeservedly scorn the virgin part of the library (the tendency to look at what confirms our knowledge, not our ignorance), in Chapter 5; b) the narrative fallacy, or how we fool ourselves with stories and anecdotes (Chapter 6); c) how emotions get in the way of our inference (Chapter 7); and d) the problem of silent evidence, or the tricks history uses to hide Black Swans from us
Note: The Black Swan: error of confirmation; the narrative fallacy; the problem of silent evidence
the pathology of thinking that the world in which we live is more understandable, more explainable, and therefore more predictable than it actually is.
Note: The Black Swan: the pathology of thinking the world is more understandable & explainable than it is