To outperform the average investor, you have to be able to outthink the consensus. Are you capable of doing so? What makes you think so? The problem is that extraordinary performance comes only from correct nonconsensus forecasts,
Note: Outhink the consensus.
One of the first things I remember learning after entering Wharton in 1963 was that the quality of a decision is not determined by the outcome. The events that transpire afterward make decisions successful or unsuccessful, and those events are often well beyond anticipating. This idea was powerfully reinforced when I read Taleb’s book. He highlights the ability of chance occurrences to reward unwise decisions and penalize good ones.